Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

The Swing State Project: Often imitated, never beaten.

It’s beer o’clock. Have at it.

46 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”

  2. With Obama’s lead in Iowa, big Democratic voter registration gains in Iowa, and an excellent Democratic GOTV operation in place, we have a chance to beat two terrible incumbents.

    So far the DCCC has not put money behind either of our challengers, although Becky Greenwald in IA-04 made the “Emerging Races” list.

    Rob Hubler in IA-05 is getting help from Feingold’s Progressive Patriots Fund, but I would like to see the DCCC get behind him too.

    We are going to pick up a few seats in November that weren’t on many people’s radar–I think either of these districts are contenders.

  4. Two Rasmussen polls of note:  Nixon up 15 in Missouri, Rossi up 6 in Washington state.  So the Palin effect is greater in Washington than in Missouri, which is much more socially conservative.

    So is it Palin or what Gregoire done since the primary?  It it the Perot voters or evangelicals, or both?  It can’t be the loss of the Sonics, can it?

    Any thoughts?

  5. CO-Sen: It looks like Mark Udall’s survived the “Palinpalooza-McSurge”… But can I now breathe easily?

    CO-04: How ’bout ‘dat Betsy Markey? Any new polls from there? I’m curious as to whether “Palinpalooza” has helped and/or hurt Markey.

    NM-Sen: Should I be worried or not? Tom Udall still looks to be ahead, but is Rasmussen right or is he still safely ahead?

    NM-01: One poll says the “Palinpalooza-McSurge” is at work here, though we haven’t yet seen any confirmation of Rasmussen. Is Martin Heinrich OK? And are his TV ads working?

    NV-02: Same question… Is “Palinpalooza-McSurge” for real here? Or can Jill Derby still expect the “Obama effect” to help lift her boat?

    NV-03: How are the radio ads working for Dina Titus? And can we expect an “Obama effect” to help turn out Democrats for Titus as well?

    OR-Sen: Merkley’s ahead??!! Really??!! Yippee! We’ve got ourselves a real race now. 🙂

  6. Nc 10 – Daniel Johnson – just got bumped up to Red to Blue

    AL-03 – Josh Segall – ads have gone up this week. Rogers is running scared

    NM-01 – Heinrich

  7. (I’m still lacking a job, but that’s another story.)

    Sometime pretty soon I’m gonna release my analysis on that “giant list” of House races that I’ve been keeping tabs on.

    Also, everyone, hang in there!  I know polling numbers have been sagging lately, what with the Republican Convention and them actually sinking their teeth and money into things.  (What, you expected them not to?)  Be prepared for disappointing numbers for a while.  But that’s just a sign for us to get into high gear, because this is the beginning of the end…of them!  They’re gonna fight back as hard as they can, but don’t lose hope on anyone–especially Al Franken, Tom Allen, Larry LaRocco, Andrew Rice, Bruce Lunsford, Rick Noriega, Scott Kleeb, Jim Martin, Ronnie Musgrove, Jill Long Thompson, Darcy Burner, Christine Gregoire, and last but certainly not least, Larry Kissell!

  8. I know various people are disappointed about Powers, but I’m pretty excited about Alice Kryzan as a possible member of Congress, especially on environmental issues.

    So now that she has won the primary and been added to Red-to-Blue, and apparently soon will be added to Emily’s List, is she going to get the national money she’ll probably need to win the race?  And how active / well-funded a campaign is Chris Lee running?

    Most important, will we see a strong endorsement of Kryzan by Powers and the Working Families Party?  (Or was there one, and I didn’t notice?)

    I’m a little concerned that people may ignore this race because our candidate isn’t the one people expected, but I see this as a winnable race with a solid Democratic candidate.

  10. Mayor Debbie Cook is currently running ads in Orange County and parts of Long Beach. She is the first candidate to run ads against Dana Rohrabacher to do so, at least to my knowledge. Check them out, and if you have some money to spare, help keep them on the air!

    http://www.actblue.com/page/du…

  11. I haven’t heard anything about Lampson in a while, and that has me pretty worried, because most of the other highly endangered Dems have kept in the headlines.  Is being left for dead?  Does anyone have any good news?

    Also, someone mentioned them above, but I’m rather curious about what’s going on the Iowa districts.  Obama’s all but certain to carry IA-04 this time, and could well keep IA-05 very close.  I’d love to see Latham and the odious King get their pink slips.  The 04 challenger is on Emerging Races and the 05 challenger is getting support from Feingold’s Progressive Patriots (surprising considering most of the other candidates getting the same support are considered top-tier).  I’d like to no more about their GE viability.

  12. Thought it might be an interesting topic.  What races do you think will be blowout takeovers in 2008 House contests?  I’ll go with double-digits margin (10+) being the cutoff for a blowout.

    There were 7 Takeovers in 2006 decided by 10+ points:

    AZ-08 – 12%

    CO-07 – 13%

    CT-05 – 12%

    IN-08 – 22%

    IA-01 – 12%

    OH-18 – 24%

    PA-07 – 12%

    At this point I’d say the following are probably going to be 10+ point takeovers this year:

    NY-13

    NY-25

    AZ-01

    VA-11

    AK-AL (Assuming the recount holds for Young)

    Other races that are potentially blowout wins:

    NJ-03

    IL-11

    CO-04

    MI-07

    NV-03

    Dem held seats potentially blowout losses:

    TX-22 – Unlikely, but you never know in a district this republican.

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